http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=17576
we're still trying to dig more gold from it. we have some success on using it on live account. generally it produces about 120% a month, please do withdraw the profits and let the money management back to original setups. continuosly doing this, i withdrawed about 450% since last November. fund in three time. Therefor, the actual profit that available in my local bank account only about 150% of the original fund size i funded in. anyway, we're trying to make it more safer and trying to eliminate the drawdown scenario, inorder to let the monster continue compounding... become a spawn devil
Below attach some minor mod on the EA
1. Now can use MM on micro account like IBFX.
2. With extra capability on changing the multiplying fact of Martingale. Uses 1.64 would greatly reduce the used margin during double down instead of gambling with 2.00 multiplying down.
3. With capability of dynamic stop loss. When placing max trade at 6, pip step 15, the stop loss will be automatically place at 90pips+Initial stop.
if you guys are interested on 10point3, I dont mind to bring Yeoeleven here, so we can start the entire research again. and I'm not getting boring at all after half a year of live/demo testing it.
http://www.freewebs.com/reynan/
AmbushForex / SnipingForex was created by traders for traders in order to provide free profitable signals. Our aim is to make everyone who knows this website become a succesful trader and share free educational materials to those who wish to know our simple yet profitable strategy. Our primary emphasis are to learn the Basics of Trading : Money Management, Discipline, and Patience. Using a great trading strategy without it is useless. That is why it is considered that 95% of traders fail since only 5% can keep it.
Money Management : Forex trading is not a quick-rich business, if ever odds goes your way make sure you only loss 1-2% of your account balance. We strongly recommend that for account with a balance of $10k and below use only Mini-account ($1.00 - $2.00/ Pip) and for $20K up may use Standard Account ($5.00/ Pip or higher).
Money management is a critical point that shows difference between winners and losers. It was proved that if 100 traders start trading using a system with 60% winning odds, only 5 traders will be in profit at the end of the year. In spite of the 60% winning odds 95% of traders will lose because of their poor money management. It is the most significant part of any trading system. Most of traders don't understand how important it is. It's important to understand the concept of money management and understand the difference between it and trading decisions. It represents the amount of money you are going to put on one trade and the risk your going to accept for this trade.
Discipline: Means keeping your strategy's rules and mechanics. Don't be affected by emotion. Patience: Develop a patience to wait whatever is stated in the strategy or signal or never trade at all.
There may be dozens of strategies in Forex trading. Let¡¯s just talk about the roots. Complement is welcome.
Hedge:
In finance, a hedge is an investment that is taken out specifically to reduce the risk in another investment. Hedging is a strategy designed to minimize exposure to an unwanted business risk, while still allowing the business to profit from an investment activity.
In FOREX, there are two kinds of mainstream hedging strategies:
1, Buy and Sell the same currencies pair, same lots, same timing. Then let it go. While one of those orders goes north, the counterpart will go south. After the winner takes profit, we can wait for the loser turning around. In a yo-yo market, this method works well.
For example, buy 2 lots GBP/USD at 2.0003, at the same time sell 2 lots GBP/USD at 1.9997. While the rate rises up to 2.0053, we close the buy order and take profit 50 pips. Now, the sell order will draw down around 50 pips. Let’s wait for the rate falling down, it will fall down usually, especially in yo-yo market environment. If the rate drops down to 2.0037, close the sell order, the sell order will lose 40 pips. Does it hurt? No. Don’t forget the 50 pips we have taken at the buy order. Totally, we can get 50-40=10 pips. Furthermore, if the rate keeps falling, let’s say down to 2.0027, we can take 50-30=20 pips, etc.
This kind of hedge can work at any currencies pair.
2, Buy (or sell) unequal lots of special currencies pairs and buy unequal quantities of another kinds of currencies pairs which usually move in the opposite direction. This seems a "Semi-Hedge" trading strategy. It is created based on “Correlation” between some particular currencies pairs. So it is not suitable for every currencies pair.
Actually, this kind of hedge has another feature: earning SWAP! You earn interest daily on the held position which can yield up to 50% per year of your full account balance.
There are several pairs can do it. Such as EUR/USD Vs. USD /CHF, GBP/USD Vs. USD/CHF, AUD/USD Vs. NZD/USD, EUR/JPY Vs. CHF/JPY, GBP/JPY Vs. CHF/JPY.
Let's take the EUR/USD and the CHF/USD pairs.
These pairs are historically negatively correlative 93-98% of the time. That is when one pair goes up the other goes down, and vice versa, up to 98% of the time. In a high leverage account (as high as 400:1 or 500:1), you could earn 50% SWAP interest in a year. How? Let's say you have $5,000 in your account and a 10% risk margin set. If the net interest we receive is 1.25% annually, this 1.25% interest will be enlarged to 50% per annum, by the 400:1 leverage.
And, this return does not include the buy low/sell high profits.
But, if the base of this kind of hedge collapses, it means the “Correlation” does not exist any more, for example the “Correlation” drops under 50% or lower, there will be a disaster.
Martingale:
Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th century France. In Forex trading, the strategy let the trader double his/her order lots after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original investment. In the example below, you bought 1 lot EUR/USD at 1.4650. Unfortunately, the rate drops. You play it in martingale way, “double down”, buy two lots, you need the EUR/USD to rally from 1.4630 to 1.4640 to break even. As the price moves lower and you add four lots, you only need it to rally to 1.4625 instead of 1.4640 to break even. The more lots you add, the lower your average entry price. Even though you may lose 100 pips on the first lot of the EUR/USD if the price hits 1.4550, you only need the currencies pair to rally to 1.4569 to break even on your entire holdings. Once the rate goes up one more pip, you will win a lot.
EUR/USD Lots Average or Breakeven Price
1.4650 1 1.4650
1.4630 2 1.4640
1.4610 4 1.4625
1.4590 8 1.4605
1.4570 16 1.4588
1.4550 32 1.4569
The Martingale strategy needs a very strict money management and you must understand that in the beginning money will be coming slowly, but if you lose the patience and raise risk level up to much, you may not hang on to the end to see the turn-around.
Anti-Martingale:
The anti-martingale strategy is the opposite of the better known martingale approach. This approach instead increases order lots after wins, while reducing them after a loss. Using an anti-martingale risk management scheme will increase profits during time periods when a trading approach is working well, while automatically decreasing exposure during portions of the cycle where trading is unprofitable. This is believed to decrease the risk of ruin for trading.
Grid:
Basically the trader sets a series of entry limit orders X pips from the current price, for example 15 pips. Some experienced traders like to use the Fibonacci Series Numbers (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, ...) or Golden Section Numbers to make this grid. Once price hits the level the limit order is executed. Then every 15 pips there is another order at limit price executed. And so on. In a yo-yo market, while the price moves up or down, there always be some limit orders executed. Once the order is taken profit, and the price moves to its original level again, a new limit order shall be executed again, then repeat the same process. Just open orders and take profits in a set of "grid". It is simple and easy, but hard to deal with when and how to close all orders, especially the Stop Loss. Some experts say we do not need stop loss, but will you take the chance to hold your all positions till "Margin Call?"
Day trading:
This refers to the practice of buying and selling currencies pairs such that all positions will usually be closed within the same Forex the trading day. The day trading idea comes from stock market. Day traders rapidly buy and sell stocks throughout the day in the hope that their stocks will continue climbing or falling in value for the seconds to minutes they own the stock, allowing them to lock in quick profits. Day trading is extremely risky and can result in substantial financial losses in a very short period of time. Under the rules of NYSE and NASD, customers who are deemed "pattern day traders" must have at least $25,000 in their accounts and can only trade in margin accounts.
But in Forex market, every one can be a day trader to do day trading. Actually, more than day trading, they can do “scalping”.
Scalping:
Scalping is a trading style where small price gaps created by the bid-ask spreads are exploited. It normally involves establishing and liquidating a position quickly, usually within minutes or even seconds. It means trying to get a few points (1~3 pips only, no greed, no long term) off the market every time. This strategy is based on a fact: approximately 70 to 80% of the time, the market is in a consolidation pattern. What this means is that for the majority of time the market is not making significant moves. For example, after the USA market is closed and before the Europe market is open, the Forex market tends to range in a consolidation channel for hours at a time before making another significant move in one direction. This kind of market behavior pattern is ideal for Forex scalping. Every time you enter the market, wait 10 or 20 minutes, once you have several pips gain then cash it and go.
Scalping has some features:
1, Lower exposure, lower risks. Scalpers are only exposed in a relatively short period.
2, Smaller moves, easier to obtain. The normal wave of the market will give you several pips easily.
3, Large volume, adding profits up. Since the profit obtained per share or contract is very small due to its target of spread, they need to trade large in order to add up the profits. Scalping is not suitable for small-capital traders.
But be careful, not every broker welcomes this kind of scalping strategy. If you scalp it too quick and thin, let’s say you just hit 1 pip every 2 or 3 minutes then run, and repeat it again and again within a day, every day, you must feel high, eh? But the broker may be not happy and bans you. You will be kicked out because of your successful scalping!
News Trading:
The system is developed based on economic news events from around the world. Nearly half of those announcements have moved the market significantly. Before a big news is coming, we can buy and sell some currencies pairs at the same time, same lots, set stop loss prices for them. After the news is released, especially for the big one, both sides of buy order and sell order will jump significantly. No matter which order is a winner, just let it go. And the loser will hit the Stop Loss, just let it be. The winner’s gain minus the loser’s loss, it is your news trading profit. For example, Non-Farm Payrolls/Employment Report - The NFP is the most influential news release of every month. It's announced on the first Friday of the month at 8:30am EST for the prior month. We can put a buy order and a sell order at market prices for GBP/USD, at 8:29 am EST. Don’t forget, set 30 pips Stop Loss level for them. Wait 2 minutes only, the news is announced, it is a big one! Then the sell order jumps over 100 pips, and the buy order drops like a brick. The brick hits the Stop Loss and the pain is over. Totally, your gain could be 100-30=70 pips. Quick and easy, cool enough?
Trend Following:
It is so simple, just follow the trend. Buy it is the most difficult strategy because no one can tell you 100% for sure what is the right TREND. Go to look at a weekly chat of USD/CAD, if you had shorted this pair in September 2001 and held it till September 2007, you know what the trend means.
The most famous trend analysis tool seems the Wave Principle. In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. Elliott isolated five such patterns, or “waves,” that recur in market price data.
Another trend analysis guru should be W. D. Gann. In 1908, Gann discovered what he called the "market time factor", which made him one of the pioneers of technical analysis. To test his new strategy, he opened one account with $300 and one with $150. It turned out to be wildly successful: Gann was able to make $25,000 profit with his $300 account in only three months; meanwhile, he made $12,000 profit with his $150 account in only 30 days! After his results were verified, he became famous on Wall Street as one of the best forecasters of all time.
Back to the chat of USD/CAD, now, please tell me, how to follow the trend? Will USD/CAD continue the trend which is going south further to 0.6000, or, another trend going north reversely back to 1.6000?
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An EA is an automated trading "robot". Robots can beat human beings at chess games, EA robots can beat humans at FOREX trading also.
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post Jan 15 2008, 09:26 AM
Post #2
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Arbitrage:
Some people call “Arbitrage” as a risk free strategy. But other people call it as a trick which looks like the cat pawing chestnuts from a fire. But in theory, its risk is minimum in deed. We introduce three types of arbitrage strategies here:
1, Triangle Arbitrage: Searching for two highly fast-moving pairs (like EUR/USD and USD/JPY), the price of a not-so-fast moving pair like EURJPY should always be derived by multiplying (or dividing, etc) the fast-moving pairs. So for example, if EUR/USD is 1.4871 and USD/JPY is 108.24, the logical price of EUR/JPY should be 1.2 x 120 = 160.96. But at the same time, the real EUR/JPY rate is 160.90. The slower moving pair lags behind the logical price, then profit opportunity comes.
In practice currencies are quoted with a bid ask spread, so a trader should be careful that he is actually buying at the quoted ask price, and selling at the quoted bid price. Other transaction costs, such as commissions, might also invalidate the apparent free lunch.
More pairs:
AUD/CAD CAD/JPY AUD/JPY
AUD/CAD GBP/CAD GBP/AUD
AUD/CAD USD/CAD AUD/USD
AUD/CHF CHF/JPY AUD/JPY
AUD/CHF GBP/CHF GBP/AUD
AUD/CHF USD/CHF AUD/USD
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/AUD
AUD/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/AUD
AUD/JPY USD/JPY AUD/USD
AUD/USD GBP/USD GBP/AUD
AUD/USD USD/CAD AUD/CAD
AUD/USD USD/CHF AUD/CHF
AUD/USD USD/JPY AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CAD
CAD/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/CAD
CAD/JPY USD/JPY USD/CAD
CHF/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF
CHF/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/CHF
EUR/AUD AUD/CHF EUR/CHF
EUR/AUD AUD/JPY EUR/JPY
EUR/AUD AUD/USD EUR/USD
EUR/AUD GBP/AUD EUR/GBP
EUR/CAD AUD/CAD EUR/AUD
EUR/CAD GBP/CAD EUR/CAD
EUR/CAD USD/CAD EUR/USD
EUR/CHF AUD/CHF EUR/AUD
EUR/CHF GBP/CHF EUR/GBP
EUR/CHF USD/CHF EUR/USD
EUR/GBP GBP/AUD EUR/AUD
EUR/GBP GBP/CAD EUR/CAD
EUR/GBP GBP/CHF EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY
EUR/GBP GBP/USD EUR/USD
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY USD/JPY EUR/USD
EUR/USD GBP/USD EUR/GBP
EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY USD/JPY GBP/USD
2, Hedging Arbitrage:
This technique is the safest ever, and the most profitable of all hedging techniques while keeping minimal risks. This technique uses the arbitrage of roll over interest rates (SWAP) between two brokers.
One broker which pays or charges roll over interest at end of day, and the other should not charge or pay this kind of roll over SWAP interest. The main idea about this type of Hedge Arbitrage is to open a position of currency (Fore example, the highest SWAP GBP/JPY) at a broker which will pay you a high interest for every night the position is carried, and to open a reverse of that position for the same currency with the broker that does not charge interest for carrying the trade. This way you will gain the interest or SWAP that is credited to your account, risk-free.
3, Netting Arbitrage:
The main idea behind the strategy is, using differences between cross rates (such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP) at different markets.
For example, suppose you had opened the following positions:
buy 1 lot EUR/USD at 1.4867;
sell 1 lot EUR/GBP at 0.7600;
and sell 0.76 lot GBP/USD at 1.9566.
The netting/clearing gives the following results:
Long EUR from the first pair and short EUR from the second pair gives zero exposure in EUR.
Long position in GBP from the second pair and short position from the third pair gives zero exposure in GBP.
Short position from the first pair ($148,670.00) in USD and long position from the third pair ($195,660.00*0.76) in USD gives you $31.60 profit without open positions and exposures. Simple? You tell me.
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