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month=5&day=25&year=2008&p1=1769&p2=136&p3=248&p4=-1

Supernova system

http://forexevent.com/
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/5909
-supernova-gbp-jpy-mini-trend-catcher-4.html

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2017770


This chat is dedicated to the great system made by Cryten.
Here we only talk about Supernova system and no other systems.
I hope this chat help people getting to know the supernova system and learn how to trade it.
Feel free to post live trades so we can get some action in this chat & let us all make some pips.

Weekly Gbpjpy Breakout System

hi all...i've been working on a weekly breakout system for a while...just finished 1 year manual backtest so i can share it now...
basically we are taking last 2 candle's on 4 hour chart of the previous week as a breakout boundary..
entry at the break either way...
stop loss at the out of break out
target profit 2x stop loss...
when the price hits stop loss in a way our we increase target profit x3 stop loss in opposite direction...
no trailing stop...
trade ends with sl -tp or end of the week...
1 year result is monthly average 714 pips...
spreadsheet and chart attached....
good luck




Optimization from Bigricky
---------------------
HI guys,
Have been following this system with great interest. I am relatively new to forex and am looking for a mechanical type system. I have spent most of the weekend backtesting this system and although the results looked promising to start with when I applied the system and stepped through every trade it unfortunately doesn't look to good for the way I would trade it over the 2005 and 2006 years. Before I go on I just want to say I am new to this and there is always the possibility that my backtesting is flawed in some way.
I have attached my spreadsheet and MT4 template to show the setups for each trade.

I trialed 2 systems side by side. I have used harolds rules.

System 1 - Take profit at 1x channel.
Use the 2 bar, then back to 3 bar. If channel less than 100pips. Make a 100 pip channel.

Add 7 pips on to upper level of channel (allowance for spread).
Buy and sell stop orders placed 3 pips outside of upper and lower channel lines to allow for channel to be actually broken before entry.
Stop levels also set at 3 pips outside of channel again to allow for channel to actually be broken before being stopped out.
Take profit at 1x channel band.

Gaps - Ignore smaller gags - less than 20 pips.) For larger gaps If gap is filled within the channel trade as per normal. If it gaps outside of channel, don't take the trade. If price returns to channel and closes gap, trade as per normal. (I actually backtested ignoring gaps vs waiting for them to close and it didn't really make much difference to the bottom line)

If the first trade is successful then thats it for the week.
If the first trade fails, Take a trade in the opposite direction if triggered.

System 2 - Take profit at 2x channel.
Same as above but take profit at 2 x channel band.


Risk

Risk is 1% of account on each trade ( compounded).
I see the system profitability is sometimes measured in pips instead of return on account. I'm still trying to figure out how that accurately measures profitability. (I'm still a newbie, remember).
For me I will only risk a set % per trade. Whether the channel is 100 pips wide or 400 pips wide it will still be 1% risk. This means that some pips will be worth $1 (100pip chan) or 25 cents (400 pip chan). Again, if I am missing something here I would appreciate more experienced people pointing me in the right direction.

I have also subtracted 5% off of the winning trades. This is to allow for the 3 pip buffer on either side of the channel. (probably more like 3% but I like to allow for the worst case scenario)


RESULTS


System 1 - Take profit at 1x channel.

2005 - 7.95% return on account
2006 - 9.62% return on account

System 2 - Take profit at 2x channel.

2005 - 8.78% return on account
2006 - 2.04% return on account

2007 (2% risk per trade - compounded)
1x chan T/P (2nd trade 1x) 46.09%
2x chan T/P (2nd trade 2x) 65.21%
2x chan T/P (2nd trade 3x) 47.16%

Maximum 5% risk per pair

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=48926


Your risk to profit ratio has to be minimum 1:2. That means if you are taking a 5% risk on a trade make sure your profit target would be at least 10%.Always have realistic targets.

More trades you take the more you expose your account for losses. No trader in this world can profit from every single market move.

Patience plays a big part in trading. Take the trades only if you are at least 90% sure of profiting from it. If you are not sure stay away from the trade. Staying on the sideline is as good as winning.

Always have a trading strategy ... make a habit to stick to it doesn’t matter how desperate you are. Always trust your strategy but not bloomberg or some statement from citibank.


Your charts are your forex bible. Everything what you need to know about forex is on your charts. You will learn something new everyday from you charts.
Specialize in one or two pairs. Every single pair has it’s own characteristics. No two pairs are the same. Don’t trade all the pairs your broker can offer. If you specialize in one or two pairs very soon you will be able to read the pair like a road map .

Stay away from the ranging markets.

Don’t try to chase every single pip or market movement.

the more you trade there is more risk of losing your money.

remember there is no easy way to become a good consistently profitable trader. No one can become a profitable trader overnight. As everything else in life it takes time, patience lots of sacrifices and learning. Don’t be afraid of mistakes.




Contribution by Bfriend - Member of this thread and Contributor
=================================== ============
I was answering some questions for someone via PM and I thought it might be good to post it in this thread. Basically, it's my rules for this strategy. For some of you (especially the regulars) this info is basically common sense to you. It goes without saying, you take it for granted...it's second nature. However, for most traders, it's something no one has really told them. It's easy to come to this thread, skim it, and just think, "Hey, if the lags line up, I should trade. I'll make money every time just like Imrain."

The fact is, the lags are great, but they can't be used ALL the time. It's not that they're bad indicators (they're the BEST I've ever used), but no matter what kind of indicator you have, you just can't trade during certain conditions.

Anyway, here are my "rules" or the "conditions" that I'm speaking of:

1) Don't trade when the 60ema and 200ema are really narrow. Wait for it to break out first.

2) Don't trade when the market is slow (like right now). Right now the only market that is open is Sydney, and it doesn't really affect this currency. Ideally you want 2 markets to be open. The best time is when UK and Japan are open at the same time, or UK and US are open at the same time. You can trade at other times, but just make sure there is decent volatility / momentum.

3) Don't trade 30 mins before or after news.

4) If there's BIG news coming, it might not be good to trade for hours before because the market just stalls and goes nowhere (same problem as #2). This is because it's waiting for the news announcement. In this case, don't trade until after the news. Watch ForexFactory Home page for News in Red - High Votality.

5) Don't trade if you're up against a barrier. This includes the daily R1 R2 R3, daily S1 S2 S3, daily pivot, and weekly pivot. It's also good to look at the 15min 60ema and 200ema to see if you're close to them as well. I also recommend treating the "00's" (239.00, 238.00, etc.) as barriers. I call them psychological barriers, and it's really just common sense. Just think about when you have a $100 bill. You're less likely to spend it. Once you finally decide to break the $100 bill, you'll usually spend your smaller bills much more quickly. This is just human nature, and well, the forex market is driven by human beings.

Instead of just thinking of the barriers as times not to trade, use them to your advantage. Wait for a currency to either break through the barrier or bounce off it. If it does this, you should still wait for the lags to give you a signal.

So really, this doesn't leave much to trade. Some days are better than others, but today for example, there hasn't been a single good / safe time to trade since I woke up. Today was particularly bad in that regard. Like an idiot, I broke my rules and tried to trade anyway...and I lost.

If you just follow those basic rules and only trade when all of the rules are met, the lags work every single time. I've never had a losing trade when I followed my rules. If I had better discipline I could be doing 90%+ successful trades. Today, my discipline was very lacking and it cost me. Rules keep you from making bad decisions, but emotions keep you from following your rules. Trading with emotion is never good, but in reality, 99% of us will never be able to trade without emotion. As long as you can keep your emotions in check enough to follow your rules, you can be a successful trader.
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Supernova GBP/JPY Mini Trend Catcher

I have been a bit of a big mouth of forex factory so have received a few pm’s about my new system.

Ok so I look at the chart for setups, for a short setup I am looking for price to be cleanly below the green ma (t3 standard settings) So if going short you want red candles with no or few upper shadows and if going long blue candles with no or few lower shadows.

The qqe alert is the crossing of the qqe indicator shown by blue/pink dots. Buy blue and pink sell, this is really just an alert and helps me pull the trigger, I do not blindly jump into a trade when a new dot forms. All indicators need to agree.

Right you’re checking out the potential setup with regards to the above, now look at the momentum indicator, I only go short when it has crossed below the grey dotted line and directional movement index indicator has crossed so that the purple line is above blue vice versa for long.

I look for setups from 2 am EST till 6 am EST, if you are late and missed any 100+ movements during this time be wary of trading as it will probably range until the US open. If there has been no big breakout it is safer to look for a setup after this time. Next best time to trade is us open. I have also noticed some good trades around 15:00 EST and 00:00 EST.

It's up to you as long as hekein ashi is cleanly above or below the t3, momentum has cross the grey dotted line and directional movement index agrees it is a high probability trade to go with the qqe alert.

Sometimes the qqe alert comes a bit early, wait for the other indicators to agree and you have less chance of the trade going against you right away to realise profit.

As for profit taking I just trail price as I go. I am looking into Spudfyre's way, once up 20 pips lock in 7, once up 30 pips lock in 14 and once up 35 pips lock in 20. I think from there leave 20 pips locked and let it go, you can easily catch 100+ movements with GBP/JPY in 5min.

ps - The trade pics appear like little 5 pips scalps but if you load the chart and check most of the trades are 100+ pips!

Cryten


Settings

I use all timeframe charts - GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/USD

(Trading off the 5min is riskier in choppy or ranging markets, If you choose to do so please use the 15min at least for reference)

QQE Alert set to period 1

Directional Movement Index 14

Momentum 10

T3 - period 8 exponential volume 0.7